Statistical area 2 population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2048(update)

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Statistical area 2 population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2048(update)


Projection		Medium
Measure		Period total fertility rate	Period life expectancy at birth - male	Period life expectancy at birth - female	Net migration
Measure
Area	5 years ended 30 June
Far North District	2023	2.35	77.5	81	6,000
	2028	2.25	78	81.6	2,500
	2033	2.23	78.7	82.2	2,500
	2038	2.22	79.5	82.8	2,500
	2043	2.22	80.1	83.4	2,500
	2048	2.22	80.8	84	2,500
Whangarei District	2023	2.1	80.4	83.7	6,000
	2028	2.01	80.8	84.2	4,000
	2033	1.99	81.5	84.8	4,000
	2038	1.98	82.2	85.4	4,000
	2043	1.98	82.9	86	4,000
	2048	1.98	83.5	86.6	4,000
Kaipara District	2023	2.45	80.6	83.9	3,500
	2028	2.35	81	84.4	1,500
	2033	2.32	81.7	85.1	1,500
	2038	2.31	82.4	85.6	1,500
	2043	2.31	83.1	86.2	1,500
	2048	2.31	83.7	86.8	1,500
Auckland	2023	1.65	81.8	85.1	-25,000
	2028	1.58	82.3	85.6	20,000
	2033	1.57	83	86.3	45,000
	2038	1.56	83.7	86.8	45,000
	2043	1.56	84.3	87.4	45,000
	2048	1.56	84.9	87.9	45,000
Thames-Coromandel District	2023	1.9	81	84.3	4,000
	2028	1.82	81.5	84.8	1,500
	2033	1.8	82.2	85.5	1,500
	2038	1.79	82.9	86	1,500
	2043	1.79	83.5	86.6	1,500
	2048	1.79	84.1	87.2	1,500
Hauraki District	2023	2.2	80.2	83.5	1,700
	2028	2.11	80.6	84	700
	2033	2.08	81.3	84.6	700
	2038	2.08	82	85.2	700
	2043	2.08	82.7	85.8	700
	2048	2.08	83.3	86.4	700
Waikato District	2023	2.15	80.7	84.1	10,000
	2028	2.06	81.2	84.6	6,000
	2033	2.04	81.9	85.3	5,000
	2038	2.03	82.6	85.8	5,000
	2043	2.03	83.2	86.4	5,000
	2048	2.03	83.8	87	5,000
Matamata-Piako District	2023	2.3	80.4	83.7	1,500
	2028	2.21	80.9	84.2	500
	2033	2.18	81.6	84.8	500
	2038	2.17	82.3	85.4	500
	2043	2.17	82.9	86	500
	2048	2.17	83.5	86.6	500
Hamilton City	2023	1.8	80.1	83.5	5,000
	2028	1.73	80.6	84	5,000
	2033	1.71	81.3	84.6	5,000
	2038	1.7	82	85.2	5,000
	2043	1.7	82.7	85.8	5,000
	2048	1.7	83.3	86.4	5,000
Waipa District	2023	2	80	83.3	5,000
	2028	1.92	80.4	83.8	2,000
	2033	1.9	81.1	84.4	2,000
	2038	1.89	81.8	85	2,000
	2043	1.89	82.5	85.6	2,000
	2048	1.89	83.1	86.2	2,000
Otorohanga District	2023	2.05	80.3	83.7	0
	2028	1.97	80.8	84.2	0
	2033	1.94	81.5	84.8	0
	2038	1.93	82.2	85.4	0
	2043	1.93	82.8	86	0
	2048	1.93	83.5	86.6	0
South Waikato District	2023	2.45	78.6	82	500
	2028	2.35	79.1	82.6	0
	2033	2.32	79.8	83.2	0
	2038	2.31	80.5	83.8	0
	2043	2.31	81.2	84.4	0
	2048	2.31	81.8	85	0
Waitomo District	2023	2.2	77.5	81	-100
	2028	2.11	78	81.6	-100
	2033	2.08	78.7	82.2	-100
	2038	2.08	79.5	82.8	-100
	2043	2.08	80.2	83.4	-100
	2048	2.08	80.8	84	-100
Taupo District	2023	2.15	80.1	83.5	2,300
	2028	2.06	80.6	84	1,000
	2033	2.04	81.3	84.6	1,000
	2038	2.03	82	85.2	1,000
	2043	2.03	82.7	85.8	1,000
	2048	2.03	83.3	86.4	1,000
Western Bay of Plenty District	2023	2.15	82.1	85.3	7,000
	2028	2.06	82.5	85.8	3,000
	2033	2.04	83.2	86.5	3,000
	2038	2.03	83.9	87	3,000
	2043	2.03	84.5	87.6	3,000
	2048	2.03	85.1	88.1	3,000
Tauranga City	2023	2	82.4	85.5	15,000
	2028	1.92	82.8	86	8,500
	2033	1.9	83.5	86.7	7,500
	2038	1.89	84.2	87.2	7,500
	2043	1.89	84.8	87.8	7,500
	2048	1.89	85.4	88.3	7,500
Rotorua District	2023	2.05	78.4	81.8	0
	2028	1.97	78.9	82.4	0
	2033	1.94	79.6	83	0
	2038	1.93	80.3	83.6	0
	2043	1.93	81	84.2	0
	2048	1.93	81.6	84.8	0
Whakatane District	2023	2.35	78	81.4	600
	2028	2.25	78.5	82	0
	2033	2.23	79.2	82.6	0
	2038	2.22	79.9	83.2	0
	2043	2.22	80.6	83.8	0
	2048	2.22	81.2	84.4	0
Kawerau District	2023	2.65	77.8	81.2	300
	2028	2.54	78.3	81.8	0
	2033	2.51	79	82.4	0
	2038	2.5	79.7	83	0
	2043	2.5	80.4	83.6	0
	2048	2.5	81	84.2	0
Opotiki District	2023	2.6	76.7	80.2	700
	2028	2.49	77.1	80.7	0
	2033	2.46	77.9	81.4	0
	2038	2.45	78.6	82	0
	2043	2.45	79.3	82.6	0
	2048	2.45	80	83.3	0
Gisborne District	2023	2.3	78.6	82	1,000
	2028	2.21	79.1	82.6	0
	2033	2.18	79.8	83.2	0
	2038	2.17	80.5	83.8	0
	2043	2.17	81.2	84.4	0
	2048	2.17	81.8	85	0
Wairoa District	2023	2.55	76	79.6	400
	2028	2.44	76.5	80.1	0
	2033	2.42	77.3	80.8	0
	2038	2.41	78	81.4	0
	2043	2.41	78.7	82.1	0
	2048	2.41	79.3	82.7	0
Hastings District	2023	2.2	79.7	83.1	4,500
	2028	2.11	80.2	83.6	2,000
	2033	2.08	80.9	84.2	2,000
	2038	2.08	81.6	84.8	2,000
	2043	2.08	82.3	85.4	2,000
	2048	2.08	82.9	86	2,000
Napier City	2023	2	80.2	83.5	2,000
	2028	1.92	80.6	84	1,500
	2033	1.9	81.3	84.6	1,500
	2038	1.89	82.1	85.2	1,500
	2043	1.89	82.7	85.8	1,500
	2048	1.89	83.3	86.4	1,500
Central Hawke's Bay District	2023	2.45	80.8	84.1	1,000
	2028	2.35	81.2	84.6	300
	2033	2.32	81.9	85.3	300
	2038	2.31	82.6	85.8	300
	2043	2.31	83.3	86.4	300
	2048	2.31	83.9	87	300
New Plymouth District	2023	2	80.6	83.9	3,500
	2028	1.92	81.1	84.4	2,000
	2033	1.9	81.7	85.1	2,000
	2038	1.89	82.5	85.6	2,000
	2043	1.89	83.1	86.2	2,000
	2048	1.89	83.7	86.8	2,000
Stratford District	2023	2.15	80.8	84.1	300
	2028	2.06	81.2	84.6	0
	2033	2.04	81.9	85.3	0
	2038	2.03	82.6	85.8	0
	2043	2.03	83.3	86.4	0
	2048	2.03	83.9	87	0
South Taranaki District	2023	2.3	79	82.4	500
	2028	2.21	79.5	83	-200
	2033	2.18	80.2	83.6	-200
	2038	2.17	80.9	84.2	-200
	2043	2.17	81.6	84.8	-200
	2048	2.17	82.2	85.4	-200
Ruapehu District	2023	2.35	78.1	81.6	-300
	2028	2.25	78.6	82.2	-300
	2033	2.23	79.3	82.8	-300
	2038	2.22	80.1	83.4	-300
	2043	2.22	80.7	84	-300
	2048	2.22	81.4	84.6	-300
Whanganui District	2023	2.05	78.7	82	2,000
	2028	1.97	79.1	82.6	1,000
	2033	1.94	79.8	83.2	1,000
	2038	1.93	80.6	83.8	1,000
	2043	1.93	81.2	84.4	1,000
	2048	1.93	81.9	85	1,000
Rangitikei District	2023	2.35	80.3	83.7	400
	2028	2.25	80.8	84.2	0
	2033	2.23	81.5	84.8	0
	2038	2.22	82.2	85.4	0
	2043	2.22	82.9	86	0
	2048	2.22	83.5	86.6	0
Manawatu District	2023	1.95	80.4	83.7	2,500
	2028	1.87	80.8	84.2	800
	2033	1.85	81.5	84.8	800
	2038	1.84	82.2	85.4	800
	2043	1.84	82.9	86	800
	2048	1.84	83.5	86.6	800
Palmerston North City	2023	1.7	80.2	83.5	-200
	2028	1.63	80.6	84	500
	2033	1.61	81.3	84.6	500
	2038	1.6	82	85.2	500
	2043	1.6	82.7	85.8	500
	2048	1.6	83.3	86.4	500
Tararua District	2023	2.2	80.4	83.7	300
	2028	2.11	80.8	84.2	0
	2033	2.08	81.5	84.8	0
	2038	2.08	82.2	85.4	0
	2043	2.08	82.9	86	0
	2048	2.08	83.5	86.6	0
Horowhenua District	2023	2.25	79.1	82.4	3,000
	2028	2.16	79.6	83	1,500
	2033	2.13	80.3	83.6	1,500
	2038	2.12	81	84.2	1,500
	2043	2.12	81.7	84.8	1,500
	2048	2.12	82.3	85.4	1,500
Kapiti Coast District	2023	1.9	80.7	83.9	3,500
	2028	1.82	81.1	84.4	2,500
	2033	1.8	81.8	85.1	2,500
	2038	1.79	82.5	85.6	2,500
	2043	1.79	83.2	86.2	2,500
	2048	1.79	83.8	86.8	2,500
Porirua City	2023	2.1	79.7	83.1	600
	2028	2.01	80.1	83.6	0
	2033	1.99	80.8	84.2	0
	2038	1.98	81.5	84.8	0
	2043	1.98	82.2	85.4	0
	2048	1.98	82.8	86	0
Upper Hutt City	2023	1.95	79.9	83.3	2,000
	2028	1.87	80.4	83.8	800
	2033	1.85	81.1	84.4	800
	2038	1.84	81.8	85	800
	2043	1.84	82.5	85.6	800
	2048	1.84	83.1	86.2	800
Lower Hutt City	2023	1.75	80.1	83.5	1,000
	2028	1.68	80.6	84	-500
	2033	1.66	81.3	84.6	-500
	2038	1.65	82	85.2	-500
	2043	1.65	82.7	85.8	-500
	2048	1.65	83.3	86.4	-500
Wellington City	2023	1	81.6	84.9	-4,000
	2028	1	82	85.4	-1,000
	2033	1	82.7	86.1	1,000
	2038	1	83.4	86.6	1,000
	2043	1	84.1	87.2	1,000
	2048	1	84.7	87.7	1,000
Masterton District	2023	2.1	79.8	83.1	3,000
	2028	2.01	80.2	83.6	800
	2033	1.99	80.9	84.2	800
	2038	1.98	81.6	84.8	800
	2043	1.98	82.3	85.4	800
	2048	1.98	82.9	86	800
Carterton District	2023	2.45	80.8	84.1	800
	2028	2.35	81.3	84.6	400
	2033	2.32	82	85.3	400
	2038	2.31	82.7	85.8	400
	2043	2.31	83.3	86.4	400
	2048	2.31	83.9	87	400
South Wairarapa District	2023	2.25	81.6	84.9	800
	2028	2.16	82.1	85.4	400
	2033	2.13	82.8	86.1	400
	2038	2.12	83.5	86.6	400
	2043	2.12	84.1	87.2	400
	2048	2.12	84.7	87.7	400
Tasman District	2023	1.9	82.7	85.9	5,000
	2028	1.82	83.2	86.4	2,500
	2033	1.8	83.8	87.1	2,500
	2038	1.79	84.5	87.6	2,500
	2043	1.79	85.2	88.2	2,500
	2048	1.79	85.8	88.7	2,500
Nelson City	2023	1.65	81.3	84.5	1,500
	2028	1.58	81.7	85	1,500
	2033	1.57	82.4	85.7	1,500
	2038	1.56	83.1	86.2	1,500
	2043	1.56	83.7	86.8	1,500
	2048	1.56	84.3	87.4	1,500
Marlborough District	2023	1.9	81.5	84.7	3,000
	2028	1.82	81.9	85.2	1,500
	2033	1.8	82.6	85.9	1,500
	2038	1.79	83.3	86.4	1,500
	2043	1.79	83.9	87	1,500
	2048	1.79	84.5	87.5	1,500
Kaikoura District	2023	2	80.6	83.9	50
	2028	1.92	81	84.4	50
	2033	1.9	81.7	85.1	50
	2038	1.89	82.4	85.6	50
	2043	1.89	83.1	86.2	50
	2048	1.89	83.7	86.8	50
Buller District	2023	1.95	78.8	82.2	-50
	2028	1.87	79.3	82.8	100
	2033	1.85	80	83.4	100
	2038	1.84	80.7	84	100
	2043	1.84	81.4	84.6	100
	2048	1.84	82	85.2	100
Grey District	2023	2.05	78.8	82.2	300
	2028	1.97	79.3	82.8	-50
	2033	1.94	80	83.4	-50
	2038	1.93	80.7	84	-50
	2043	1.93	81.4	84.6	-50
	2048	1.93	82	85.2	-50
Westland District	2023	1.6	79.9	83.3	-50
	2028	1.54	80.3	83.8	50
	2033	1.52	81	84.4	50
	2038	1.52	81.8	85	50
	2043	1.52	82.4	85.6	50
	2048	1.52	83	86.2	50
Hurunui District	2023	2	83.6	86.8	500
	2028	1.92	84	87.2	250
	2033	1.9	84.7	87.9	250
	2038	1.89	85.4	88.4	250
	2043	1.89	86	89	250
	2048	1.89	86.6	89.5	250
Waimakariri District	2023	1.9	80.8	84.1	7,000
	2028	1.82	81.2	84.6	4,000
	2033	1.8	81.9	85.3	4,000
	2038	1.79	82.6	85.8	4,000
	2043	1.79	83.3	86.4	4,000
	2048	1.79	83.9	87	4,000
Christchurch City	2023	1.6	80.2	83.5	-1,500
	2028	1.54	80.6	84	4,000
	2033	1.52	81.3	84.6	7,500
	2038	1.52	82	85.2	7,500
	2043	1.52	82.7	85.8	7,500
	2048	1.52	83.3	86.4	7,500
Selwyn District	2023	1.95	84.7	88	16,000
	2028	1.87	85.1	88.5	6,000
	2033	1.85	85.8	89.1	4,500
	2038	1.84	86.5	89.6	4,500
	2043	1.84	87.1	90.1	4,500
	2048	1.84	87.6	90.7	4,500
Ashburton District	2023	1.9	80	83.3	1,200
	2028	1.82	80.4	83.8	700
	2033	1.8	81.1	84.4	700
	2038	1.79	81.8	85	700
	2043	1.79	82.5	85.6	700
	2048	1.79	83.1	86.2	700
Timaru District	2023	1.85	80	83.3	1,200
	2028	1.77	80.4	83.8	1,000
	2033	1.75	81.1	84.4	1,000
	2038	1.75	81.8	85	1,000
	2043	1.75	82.5	85.6	1,000
	2048	1.75	83.1	86.2	1,000
Mackenzie District	2023	1.55	83.1	86.3	200
	2028	1.5	83.5	86.8	200
	2033	1.48	84.2	87.5	200
	2038	1.47	84.8	88	200
	2043	1.47	85.5	88.6	200
	2048	1.47	86.1	89.1	200
Waimate District	2023	2.1	81.9	85.1	150
	2028	2.01	82.3	85.6	150
	2033	1.99	83	86.3	150
	2038	1.98	83.7	86.8	150
	2043	1.98	84.4	87.4	150
	2048	1.98	85	87.9	150
Chatham Islands Territory	2023	1.75	76.4	80	150
	2028	1.68	76.9	80.5	0
	2033	1.66	77.6	81.2	0
	2038	1.65	78.3	81.8	0
	2043	1.65	79	82.5	0
	2048	1.65	79.7	83.1	0
Waitaki District	2023	1.7	80.8	84.1	1,500
	2028	1.63	81.3	84.6	500
	2033	1.61	82	85.3	500
	2038	1.6	82.7	85.8	500
	2043	1.6	83.3	86.4	500
	2048	1.6	83.9	87	500
Central Otago District	2023	2	83.2	86.3	3,500
	2028	1.92	83.6	86.8	1,500
	2033	1.9	84.3	87.5	1,500
	2038	1.89	84.9	88	1,500
	2043	1.89	85.6	88.6	1,500
	2048	1.89	86.2	89.1	1,500
Queenstown-Lakes District	2023	1.15	84.7	88	6,000
	2028	1.14	85.2	88.5	2,500
	2033	1.13	85.8	89.1	2,500
	2038	1.13	86.5	89.6	2,500
	2043	1.13	87.1	90.1	2,500
	2048	1.13	87.7	90.7	2,500
Dunedin City	2023	1.35	80.4	83.7	-1,000
	2028	1.32	80.8	84.2	2,000
	2033	1.31	81.5	84.8	2,000
	2038	1.3	82.2	85.4	2,000
	2043	1.3	82.9	86	2,000
	2048	1.3	83.5	86.6	2,000
Clutha District	2023	2.15	80.4	83.7	400
	2028	2.06	80.8	84.2	0
	2033	2.04	81.5	84.8	0
	2038	2.03	82.2	85.4	0
	2043	2.03	82.9	86	0
	2048	2.03	83.5	86.6	0
Southland District	2023	1.9	82.7	85.9	-200
	2028	1.82	83.1	86.4	-200
	2033	1.8	83.8	87.1	-200
	2038	1.79	84.5	87.6	-200
	2043	1.79	85.1	88.2	-200
	2048	1.79	85.7	88.7	-200
Gore District	2023	1.85	78.9	82.2	300
	2028	1.77	79.4	82.8	150
	2033	1.75	80.1	83.4	150
	2038	1.75	80.8	84	150
	2043	1.75	81.5	84.6	150
	2048	1.75	82.1	85.2	150
Invercargill City	2023	1.7	78.5	81.8	700
	2028	1.63	78.9	82.4	1,000
	2033	1.61	79.6	83	1,000
	2038	1.6	80.4	83.6	1,000
	2043	1.6	81	84.2	1,000
	2048	1.6	81.7	84.8	1,000

Data extracted on 25 Sep 2023 13:33 UTC (GMT) from NZ.Stat

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Statistical area 2 population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2048(update)

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