- Population projections
- National population projections
- Subnational population projections
- Statistical area 2 population projections, by age and sex, 2018(base)-2048
- Statistical area 2 population projections, by age and sex, 2018(base)-2048 (update)
- Statistical area 2 population projections, characteristics, 2018(base)-2048
- Statistical area 2 population projections, characteristics, 2018(base)-2048(update)
- Statistical area 2 population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2048
- Statistical area 2 population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2048(update)
- Subnational population projections, by age and sex, 2018(base)-2048 update
- Subnational population projections, characteristics, 2018(base)-2048 update
- Subnational population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2048 update
- Ethnic population projections
- National ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2018(base)-2043 update
- National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2018(base)-2043 update
- National ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2043 update
- Subnational ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2018(base)-2043
- Subnational ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2018(base)-2043
- Subnational ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2043
- Labour force projections
- Family and household projections
- National family and household projections, population by living arrangement type, age, and sex, 2018(base)-2043
- National family projections, by family type, 2018(base)-2043
- National household projections, by household type, 2018(base)-2043
- Statistical area 2 (SA2) household projections, 2018(base)-2043
- Subnational family and household projections, population by living arrangement type, and age, 2018(base)-2043
- Subnational family projections, by family type, 2018(base)-2043
- Subnational household projections, by household type, 2018(base)-2043

Statistical area 2 population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2048(update)
|
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Projection | Medium |
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Measure | Period total fertility rate | Period life expectancy at birth - male | Period life expectancy at birth - female | Net migration |
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  |   |   |   |
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Area | 5 years ended 30 June | | | | | |
---|
Kaipara District | 2023 | | 2.45 | 80.6 | 83.9 | 3,500 |
2028 | | 2.35 | 81 | 84.4 | 1,500 |
2033 | | 2.32 | 81.7 | 85.1 | 1,500 |
2038 | | 2.31 | 82.4 | 85.6 | 1,500 |
2043 | | 2.31 | 83.1 | 86.2 | 1,500 |
2048 | | 2.31 | 83.7 | 86.8 | 1,500 |
Hauraki District | 2023 | | 2.2 | 80.2 | 83.5 | 1,700 |
2028 | | 2.11 | 80.6 | 84 | 700 |
2033 | | 2.08 | 81.3 | 84.6 | 700 |
2038 | | 2.08 | 82 | 85.2 | 700 |
2043 | | 2.08 | 82.7 | 85.8 | 700 |
2048 | | 2.08 | 83.3 | 86.4 | 700 |
Matamata-Piako District | 2023 | | 2.3 | 80.4 | 83.7 | 1,500 |
2028 | | 2.21 | 80.9 | 84.2 | 500 |
2033 | | 2.18 | 81.6 | 84.8 | 500 |
2038 | | 2.17 | 82.3 | 85.4 | 500 |
2043 | | 2.17 | 82.9 | 86 | 500 |
2048 | | 2.17 | 83.5 | 86.6 | 500 |
Waipa District | 2023 | | 2 | 80 | 83.3 | 5,000 |
2028 | | 1.92 | 80.4 | 83.8 | 2,000 |
2033 | | 1.9 | 81.1 | 84.4 | 2,000 |
2038 | | 1.89 | 81.8 | 85 | 2,000 |
2043 | | 1.89 | 82.5 | 85.6 | 2,000 |
2048 | | 1.89 | 83.1 | 86.2 | 2,000 |
Otorohanga District | 2023 | | 2.05 | 80.3 | 83.7 | 0 |
2028 | | 1.97 | 80.8 | 84.2 | 0 |
2033 | | 1.94 | 81.5 | 84.8 | 0 |
2038 | | 1.93 | 82.2 | 85.4 | 0 |
2043 | | 1.93 | 82.8 | 86 | 0 |
2048 | | 1.93 | 83.5 | 86.6 | 0 |
South Waikato District | 2023 | | 2.45 | 78.6 | 82 | 500 |
2028 | | 2.35 | 79.1 | 82.6 | 0 |
2033 | | 2.32 | 79.8 | 83.2 | 0 |
2038 | | 2.31 | 80.5 | 83.8 | 0 |
2043 | | 2.31 | 81.2 | 84.4 | 0 |
2048 | | 2.31 | 81.8 | 85 | 0 |
Waitomo District | 2023 | | 2.2 | 77.5 | 81 | -100 |
2028 | | 2.11 | 78 | 81.6 | -100 |
2033 | | 2.08 | 78.7 | 82.2 | -100 |
2038 | | 2.08 | 79.5 | 82.8 | -100 |
2043 | | 2.08 | 80.2 | 83.4 | -100 |
2048 | | 2.08 | 80.8 | 84 | -100 |
Taupo District | 2023 | | 2.15 | 80.1 | 83.5 | 2,300 |
2028 | | 2.06 | 80.6 | 84 | 1,000 |
2033 | | 2.04 | 81.3 | 84.6 | 1,000 |
2038 | | 2.03 | 82 | 85.2 | 1,000 |
2043 | | 2.03 | 82.7 | 85.8 | 1,000 |
2048 | | 2.03 | 83.3 | 86.4 | 1,000 |
Rotorua District | 2023 | | 2.05 | 78.4 | 81.8 | 0 |
2028 | | 1.97 | 78.9 | 82.4 | 0 |
2033 | | 1.94 | 79.6 | 83 | 0 |
2038 | | 1.93 | 80.3 | 83.6 | 0 |
2043 | | 1.93 | 81 | 84.2 | 0 |
2048 | | 1.93 | 81.6 | 84.8 | 0 |
Whakatane District | 2023 | | 2.35 | 78 | 81.4 | 600 |
2028 | | 2.25 | 78.5 | 82 | 0 |
2033 | | 2.23 | 79.2 | 82.6 | 0 |
2038 | | 2.22 | 79.9 | 83.2 | 0 |
2043 | | 2.22 | 80.6 | 83.8 | 0 |
2048 | | 2.22 | 81.2 | 84.4 | 0 |
Kawerau District | 2023 | | 2.65 | 77.8 | 81.2 | 300 |
2028 | | 2.54 | 78.3 | 81.8 | 0 |
2033 | | 2.51 | 79 | 82.4 | 0 |
2038 | | 2.5 | 79.7 | 83 | 0 |
2043 | | 2.5 | 80.4 | 83.6 | 0 |
2048 | | 2.5 | 81 | 84.2 | 0 |
New Plymouth District | 2023 | | 2 | 80.6 | 83.9 | 3,500 |
2028 | | 1.92 | 81.1 | 84.4 | 2,000 |
2033 | | 1.9 | 81.7 | 85.1 | 2,000 |
2038 | | 1.89 | 82.5 | 85.6 | 2,000 |
2043 | | 1.89 | 83.1 | 86.2 | 2,000 |
2048 | | 1.89 | 83.7 | 86.8 | 2,000 |
Stratford District | 2023 | | 2.15 | 80.8 | 84.1 | 300 |
2028 | | 2.06 | 81.2 | 84.6 | 0 |
2033 | | 2.04 | 81.9 | 85.3 | 0 |
2038 | | 2.03 | 82.6 | 85.8 | 0 |
2043 | | 2.03 | 83.3 | 86.4 | 0 |
2048 | | 2.03 | 83.9 | 87 | 0 |
South Taranaki District | 2023 | | 2.3 | 79 | 82.4 | 500 |
2028 | | 2.21 | 79.5 | 83 | -200 |
2033 | | 2.18 | 80.2 | 83.6 | -200 |
2038 | | 2.17 | 80.9 | 84.2 | -200 |
2043 | | 2.17 | 81.6 | 84.8 | -200 |
2048 | | 2.17 | 82.2 | 85.4 | -200 |
Whanganui District | 2023 | | 2.05 | 78.7 | 82 | 2,000 |
2028 | | 1.97 | 79.1 | 82.6 | 1,000 |
2033 | | 1.94 | 79.8 | 83.2 | 1,000 |
2038 | | 1.93 | 80.6 | 83.8 | 1,000 |
2043 | | 1.93 | 81.2 | 84.4 | 1,000 |
2048 | | 1.93 | 81.9 | 85 | 1,000 |
Rangitikei District | 2023 | | 2.35 | 80.3 | 83.7 | 400 |
2028 | | 2.25 | 80.8 | 84.2 | 0 |
2033 | | 2.23 | 81.5 | 84.8 | 0 |
2038 | | 2.22 | 82.2 | 85.4 | 0 |
2043 | | 2.22 | 82.9 | 86 | 0 |
2048 | | 2.22 | 83.5 | 86.6 | 0 |
Palmerston North City | 2023 | | 1.7 | 80.2 | 83.5 | -200 |
2028 | | 1.63 | 80.6 | 84 | 500 |
2033 | | 1.61 | 81.3 | 84.6 | 500 |
2038 | | 1.6 | 82 | 85.2 | 500 |
2043 | | 1.6 | 82.7 | 85.8 | 500 |
2048 | | 1.6 | 83.3 | 86.4 | 500 |
Tararua District | 2023 | | 2.2 | 80.4 | 83.7 | 300 |
2028 | | 2.11 | 80.8 | 84.2 | 0 |
2033 | | 2.08 | 81.5 | 84.8 | 0 |
2038 | | 2.08 | 82.2 | 85.4 | 0 |
2043 | | 2.08 | 82.9 | 86 | 0 |
2048 | | 2.08 | 83.5 | 86.6 | 0 |
Horowhenua District | 2023 | | 2.25 | 79.1 | 82.4 | 3,000 |
2028 | | 2.16 | 79.6 | 83 | 1,500 |
2033 | | 2.13 | 80.3 | 83.6 | 1,500 |
2038 | | 2.12 | 81 | 84.2 | 1,500 |
2043 | | 2.12 | 81.7 | 84.8 | 1,500 |
2048 | | 2.12 | 82.3 | 85.4 | 1,500 |
Kapiti Coast District | 2023 | | 1.9 | 80.7 | 83.9 | 3,500 |
2028 | | 1.82 | 81.1 | 84.4 | 2,500 |
2033 | | 1.8 | 81.8 | 85.1 | 2,500 |
2038 | | 1.79 | 82.5 | 85.6 | 2,500 |
2043 | | 1.79 | 83.2 | 86.2 | 2,500 |
2048 | | 1.79 | 83.8 | 86.8 | 2,500 |
Porirua City | 2023 | | 2.1 | 79.7 | 83.1 | 600 |
2028 | | 2.01 | 80.1 | 83.6 | 0 |
2033 | | 1.99 | 80.8 | 84.2 | 0 |
2038 | | 1.98 | 81.5 | 84.8 | 0 |
2043 | | 1.98 | 82.2 | 85.4 | 0 |
2048 | | 1.98 | 82.8 | 86 | 0 |
Carterton District | 2023 | | 2.45 | 80.8 | 84.1 | 800 |
2028 | | 2.35 | 81.3 | 84.6 | 400 |
2033 | | 2.32 | 82 | 85.3 | 400 |
2038 | | 2.31 | 82.7 | 85.8 | 400 |
2043 | | 2.31 | 83.3 | 86.4 | 400 |
2048 | | 2.31 | 83.9 | 87 | 400 |
South Wairarapa District | 2023 | | 2.25 | 81.6 | 84.9 | 800 |
2028 | | 2.16 | 82.1 | 85.4 | 400 |
2033 | | 2.13 | 82.8 | 86.1 | 400 |
2038 | | 2.12 | 83.5 | 86.6 | 400 |
2043 | | 2.12 | 84.1 | 87.2 | 400 |
2048 | | 2.12 | 84.7 | 87.7 | 400 |
Tasman District | 2023 | | 1.9 | 82.7 | 85.9 | 5,000 |
2028 | | 1.82 | 83.2 | 86.4 | 2,500 |
2033 | | 1.8 | 83.8 | 87.1 | 2,500 |
2038 | | 1.79 | 84.5 | 87.6 | 2,500 |
2043 | | 1.79 | 85.2 | 88.2 | 2,500 |
2048 | | 1.79 | 85.8 | 88.7 | 2,500 |
Nelson City | 2023 | | 1.65 | 81.3 | 84.5 | 1,500 |
2028 | | 1.58 | 81.7 | 85 | 1,500 |
2033 | | 1.57 | 82.4 | 85.7 | 1,500 |
2038 | | 1.56 | 83.1 | 86.2 | 1,500 |
2043 | | 1.56 | 83.7 | 86.8 | 1,500 |
2048 | | 1.56 | 84.3 | 87.4 | 1,500 |
Marlborough District | 2023 | | 1.9 | 81.5 | 84.7 | 3,000 |
2028 | | 1.82 | 81.9 | 85.2 | 1,500 |
2033 | | 1.8 | 82.6 | 85.9 | 1,500 |
2038 | | 1.79 | 83.3 | 86.4 | 1,500 |
2043 | | 1.79 | 83.9 | 87 | 1,500 |
2048 | | 1.79 | 84.5 | 87.5 | 1,500 |
Kaikoura District | 2023 | | 2 | 80.6 | 83.9 | 50 |
2028 | | 1.92 | 81 | 84.4 | 50 |
2033 | | 1.9 | 81.7 | 85.1 | 50 |
2038 | | 1.89 | 82.4 | 85.6 | 50 |
2043 | | 1.89 | 83.1 | 86.2 | 50 |
2048 | | 1.89 | 83.7 | 86.8 | 50 |
Buller District | 2023 | | 1.95 | 78.8 | 82.2 | -50 |
2028 | | 1.87 | 79.3 | 82.8 | 100 |
2033 | | 1.85 | 80 | 83.4 | 100 |
2038 | | 1.84 | 80.7 | 84 | 100 |
2043 | | 1.84 | 81.4 | 84.6 | 100 |
2048 | | 1.84 | 82 | 85.2 | 100 |
Westland District | 2023 | | 1.6 | 79.9 | 83.3 | -50 |
2028 | | 1.54 | 80.3 | 83.8 | 50 |
2033 | | 1.52 | 81 | 84.4 | 50 |
2038 | | 1.52 | 81.8 | 85 | 50 |
2043 | | 1.52 | 82.4 | 85.6 | 50 |
2048 | | 1.52 | 83 | 86.2 | 50 |
Hurunui District | 2023 | | 2 | 83.6 | 86.8 | 500 |
2028 | | 1.92 | 84 | 87.2 | 250 |
2033 | | 1.9 | 84.7 | 87.9 | 250 |
2038 | | 1.89 | 85.4 | 88.4 | 250 |
2043 | | 1.89 | 86 | 89 | 250 |
2048 | | 1.89 | 86.6 | 89.5 | 250 |
Selwyn District | 2023 | | 1.95 | 84.7 | 88 | 16,000 |
2028 | | 1.87 | 85.1 | 88.5 | 6,000 |
2033 | | 1.85 | 85.8 | 89.1 | 4,500 |
2038 | | 1.84 | 86.5 | 89.6 | 4,500 |
2043 | | 1.84 | 87.1 | 90.1 | 4,500 |
2048 | | 1.84 | 87.6 | 90.7 | 4,500 |
Timaru District | 2023 | | 1.85 | 80 | 83.3 | 1,200 |
2028 | | 1.77 | 80.4 | 83.8 | 1,000 |
2033 | | 1.75 | 81.1 | 84.4 | 1,000 |
2038 | | 1.75 | 81.8 | 85 | 1,000 |
2043 | | 1.75 | 82.5 | 85.6 | 1,000 |
2048 | | 1.75 | 83.1 | 86.2 | 1,000 |
Chatham Islands Territory | 2023 | | 1.75 | 76.4 | 80 | 150 |
2028 | | 1.68 | 76.9 | 80.5 | 0 |
2033 | | 1.66 | 77.6 | 81.2 | 0 |
2038 | | 1.65 | 78.3 | 81.8 | 0 |
2043 | | 1.65 | 79 | 82.5 | 0 |
2048 | | 1.65 | 79.7 | 83.1 | 0 |
Waitaki District | 2023 | | 1.7 | 80.8 | 84.1 | 1,500 |
2028 | | 1.63 | 81.3 | 84.6 | 500 |
2033 | | 1.61 | 82 | 85.3 | 500 |
2038 | | 1.6 | 82.7 | 85.8 | 500 |
2043 | | 1.6 | 83.3 | 86.4 | 500 |
2048 | | 1.6 | 83.9 | 87 | 500 |
Central Otago District | 2023 | | 2 | 83.2 | 86.3 | 3,500 |
2028 | | 1.92 | 83.6 | 86.8 | 1,500 |
2033 | | 1.9 | 84.3 | 87.5 | 1,500 |
2038 | | 1.89 | 84.9 | 88 | 1,500 |
2043 | | 1.89 | 85.6 | 88.6 | 1,500 |
2048 | | 1.89 | 86.2 | 89.1 | 1,500 |
Queenstown-Lakes District | 2023 | | 1.15 | 84.7 | 88 | 6,000 |
2028 | | 1.14 | 85.2 | 88.5 | 2,500 |
2033 | | 1.13 | 85.8 | 89.1 | 2,500 |
2038 | | 1.13 | 86.5 | 89.6 | 2,500 |
2043 | | 1.13 | 87.1 | 90.1 | 2,500 |
2048 | | 1.13 | 87.7 | 90.7 | 2,500 |
Dunedin City | 2023 | | 1.35 | 80.4 | 83.7 | -1,000 |
2028 | | 1.32 | 80.8 | 84.2 | 2,000 |
2033 | | 1.31 | 81.5 | 84.8 | 2,000 |
2038 | | 1.3 | 82.2 | 85.4 | 2,000 |
2043 | | 1.3 | 82.9 | 86 | 2,000 |
2048 | | 1.3 | 83.5 | 86.6 | 2,000 |
Clutha District | 2023 | | 2.15 | 80.4 | 83.7 | 400 |
2028 | | 2.06 | 80.8 | 84.2 | 0 |
2033 | | 2.04 | 81.5 | 84.8 | 0 |
2038 | | 2.03 | 82.2 | 85.4 | 0 |
2043 | | 2.03 | 82.9 | 86 | 0 |
2048 | | 2.03 | 83.5 | 86.6 | 0 |
Southland District | 2023 | | 1.9 | 82.7 | 85.9 | -200 |
2028 | | 1.82 | 83.1 | 86.4 | -200 |
2033 | | 1.8 | 83.8 | 87.1 | -200 |
2038 | | 1.79 | 84.5 | 87.6 | -200 |
2043 | | 1.79 | 85.1 | 88.2 | -200 |
2048 | | 1.79 | 85.7 | 88.7 | -200 |
Invercargill City | 2023 | | 1.7 | 78.5 | 81.8 | 700 |
2028 | | 1.63 | 78.9 | 82.4 | 1,000 |
2033 | | 1.61 | 79.6 | 83 | 1,000 |
2038 | | 1.6 | 80.4 | 83.6 | 1,000 |
2043 | | 1.6 | 81 | 84.2 | 1,000 |
2048 | | 1.6 | 81.7 | 84.8 | 1,000 |
