National ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2043 update

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National ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2043 update


Ethnicity	European or Other (including New Zealander)						Maori						Asian						Pacific						Middle Eastern/Latin American/African						Chinese						Indian						Samoan
Scenario	50th percentile (median)
Measure	Period total fertility rate	Period total paternity rate	Male period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Female period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Net migration	Inter-ethnic mobility rate (percent)	Period total fertility rate	Period total paternity rate	Male period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Female period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Net migration	Inter-ethnic mobility rate (percent)	Period total fertility rate	Period total paternity rate	Male period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Female period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Net migration	Inter-ethnic mobility rate (percent)	Period total fertility rate	Period total paternity rate	Male period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Female period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Net migration	Inter-ethnic mobility rate (percent)	Period total fertility rate	Period total paternity rate	Male period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Female period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Net migration	Inter-ethnic mobility rate (percent)	Period total fertility rate	Period total paternity rate	Male period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Female period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Net migration	Inter-ethnic mobility rate (percent)	Period total fertility rate	Period total paternity rate	Male period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Female period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Net migration	Inter-ethnic mobility rate (percent)	Period total fertility rate	Period total paternity rate	Male period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Female period life expectancy at birth (years of life)	Net migration	Inter-ethnic mobility rate (percent)
Measure
Year at 30 June
2019	1.71	0.14	81.3	84.6	18,000	0.22	2.12	0.79	73.6	77.3	0	0.42	1.38	0.14	85	87.9	25,000	0.17	2.14	0.86	75.3	79.3	4,000	0.1	1.6	0.58	80.7	87.3	5,000	0.09	1.11	0.18	86.9	89.2	7,000	0.14	1.53	0.19	82.9	86.3	8,000	0.15	2.05	1.15	76.6	79.6	2,000	0.1
2020	1.65	0.14	81.5	84.9	40,000	0.22	2.09	0.76	73.6	78	4,000	0.41	1.37	0.14	85.6	88.7	26,000	0.17	2.05	0.84	76.9	80.5	13,000	0.1	1.6	0.58	83.5	86.7	6,000	0.09	1.14	0.18	86.9	89.8	0	0.17	1.56	0.19	84.4	86.7	13,000	0.14	2.03	1.13	78.1	81.1	6,000	0.1
2021	1.6	0.14	81.9	85.4	5,000	0.22	2	0.76	74.2	78.4	4,000	0.41	1.33	0.14	85.7	88.5	-13,000	0.17	1.85	0.82	76.2	80.4	1,000	0.09	1.6	0.57	84.4	88.3	-1,000	0.08	0.98	0.18	86.8	89.3	-6,000	0.2	1.61	0.18	84.6	87.2	-3,000	0.14	1.78	1.08	76.6	81.1	2,000	0.1
2022	1.65	0.15	81.4	84.7	-3,000	0.22	2.04	0.78	74.1	77.8	0	0.41	1.41	0.16	85.4	88.4	-9,000	0.17	1.93	0.82	75.1	79	2,000	0.09	1.6	0.56	82.4	86.2	-1,000	0.06	0.98	0.18	87	89.9	-6,000	0.23	1.74	0.18	84.4	86.6	0	0.13	1.88	1.08	76.1	79.7	2,000	0.09
2023	1.64	0.14	81.6	84.9	-2,000	0.21	2.02	0.77	74.6	78.2	0	0.41	1.41	0.15	85.6	88.6	-2,000	0.17	1.93	0.8	76.3	80.4	2,000	0.09	1.6	0.55	82.6	86.5	0	0.05	1	0.18	87.3	89.9	-1,000	0.27	1.73	0.18	84.7	86.9	2,000	0.12	1.88	1.07	77.8	81.1	1,000	0.09
2024	1.64	0.14	81.7	85	0	0.21	2	0.75	74.8	78.4	0	0.4	1.4	0.15	85.6	88.6	5,000	0.17	1.93	0.79	76.6	80.6	1,000	0.09	1.6	0.55	82.7	86.6	1,000	0.04	1.02	0.18	87.3	90	1,000	0.3	1.72	0.18	84.7	86.9	4,000	0.12	1.87	1.05	78	81.3	500	0.09
2025	1.64	0.14	81.8	85.1	2,000	0.21	1.98	0.73	75	78.6	-1,000	0.4	1.4	0.14	85.7	88.7	12,000	0.17	1.93	0.77	76.8	80.8	500	0.09	1.59	0.54	82.8	86.6	2,000	0.04	1.04	0.17	87.3	90	3,000	0.33	1.7	0.18	84.7	87	6,000	0.12	1.87	1.04	78.2	81.4	200	0.09
2026	1.63	0.14	81.9	85.2	3,000	0.21	1.97	0.72	75.2	78.8	-1,000	0.4	1.4	0.14	85.7	88.7	19,000	0.17	1.92	0.76	77	81	500	0.09	1.59	0.54	82.9	86.7	2,000	0.04	1.06	0.17	87.4	90	6,000	0.34	1.69	0.17	84.8	87	7,000	0.12	1.87	1.03	78.4	81.6	200	0.09
2027	1.63	0.14	82	85.4	3,000	0.21	1.95	0.71	75.4	79	-1,000	0.4	1.4	0.14	85.8	88.7	19,000	0.17	1.92	0.74	77.2	81.2	500	0.08	1.59	0.53	83	86.7	2,000	0.04	1.08	0.17	87.4	90	6,000	0.33	1.68	0.17	84.8	87.1	7,000	0.12	1.86	1.02	78.6	81.8	200	0.09
2028	1.63	0.13	82.1	85.5	3,000	0.21	1.93	0.69	75.6	79.2	-1,000	0.4	1.4	0.13	85.9	88.8	19,000	0.17	1.92	0.73	77.5	81.4	500	0.08	1.59	0.53	83.1	86.8	2,000	0.04	1.09	0.17	87.4	90	6,000	0.32	1.67	0.17	84.9	87.1	7,000	0.12	1.86	1.01	78.9	82	200	0.09
2029	1.62	0.13	82.3	85.7	3,000	0.21	1.92	0.68	75.9	79.4	-1,000	0.4	1.4	0.13	85.9	88.8	19,000	0.17	1.92	0.72	77.8	81.6	500	0.08	1.59	0.52	83.2	86.9	2,000	0.04	1.11	0.16	87.5	90	6,000	0.31	1.66	0.17	84.9	87.2	7,000	0.12	1.86	1	79.1	82.2	200	0.09
2030	1.62	0.13	82.4	85.8	3,000	0.21	1.91	0.67	76.1	79.7	-1,000	0.39	1.4	0.13	86	88.8	19,000	0.16	1.91	0.71	78	81.8	500	0.08	1.59	0.52	83.4	86.9	2,000	0.05	1.12	0.16	87.5	90	6,000	0.29	1.65	0.17	84.9	87.3	7,000	0.13	1.85	0.99	79.4	82.5	200	0.09
2031	1.62	0.13	82.5	85.9	3,000	0.21	1.9	0.66	76.3	79.9	-1,000	0.39	1.4	0.12	86	88.9	19,000	0.16	1.91	0.7	78.3	82	500	0.08	1.59	0.51	83.5	87	2,000	0.05	1.13	0.16	87.5	90	6,000	0.26	1.64	0.17	85	87.3	7,000	0.13	1.85	0.98	79.6	82.6	200	0.08
2032	1.62	0.13	82.7	86.1	3,000	0.21	1.89	0.65	76.5	80	-1,000	0.39	1.39	0.12	86.1	88.9	19,000	0.16	1.91	0.69	78.5	82.2	500	0.08	1.59	0.51	83.6	87.1	2,000	0.05	1.14	0.16	87.6	90	6,000	0.24	1.64	0.16	85	87.4	7,000	0.13	1.85	0.97	79.8	82.8	200	0.08
2033	1.61	0.13	82.8	86.2	3,000	0.2	1.88	0.64	76.7	80.2	-1,000	0.39	1.39	0.12	86.1	88.9	19,000	0.16	1.91	0.68	78.7	82.4	500	0.08	1.59	0.51	83.6	87.1	2,000	0.06	1.16	0.16	87.6	90	6,000	0.21	1.63	0.16	85	87.4	7,000	0.13	1.85	0.96	80	83	200	0.09
2034	1.61	0.12	82.9	86.3	3,000	0.2	1.87	0.63	76.9	80.4	-1,000	0.39	1.39	0.12	86.2	88.9	19,000	0.16	1.91	0.67	78.9	82.6	500	0.07	1.59	0.51	83.8	87.2	2,000	0.06	1.17	0.16	87.6	90	6,000	0.19	1.62	0.16	85.1	87.5	7,000	0.14	1.84	0.96	80.2	83.2	200	0.09
2035	1.61	0.12	83	86.4	3,000	0.2	1.86	0.62	77.1	80.7	-1,000	0.39	1.39	0.12	86.3	89	19,000	0.16	1.91	0.66	79.2	82.8	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	83.9	87.3	2,000	0.06	1.17	0.15	87.7	90	6,000	0.16	1.62	0.16	85.1	87.5	7,000	0.14	1.84	0.95	80.5	83.4	200	0.09
2036	1.61	0.12	83.2	86.6	3,000	0.2	1.86	0.62	77.4	80.9	-1,000	0.39	1.39	0.11	86.3	89	19,000	0.16	1.91	0.66	79.4	83	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	84	87.3	2,000	0.06	1.18	0.15	87.7	90	6,000	0.14	1.61	0.16	85.2	87.6	7,000	0.14	1.84	0.95	80.7	83.6	200	0.09
2037	1.61	0.12	83.3	86.7	3,000	0.2	1.85	0.61	77.6	81.1	-1,000	0.39	1.39	0.11	86.4	89	19,000	0.16	1.91	0.65	79.7	83.2	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	84.1	87.4	2,000	0.07	1.19	0.15	87.8	90	6,000	0.13	1.61	0.16	85.2	87.6	7,000	0.14	1.84	0.94	80.9	83.8	200	0.09
2038	1.61	0.12	83.4	86.8	3,000	0.2	1.85	0.61	77.8	81.3	-1,000	0.39	1.39	0.11	86.4	89.1	19,000	0.15	1.9	0.65	79.9	83.4	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	84.2	87.4	2,000	0.07	1.19	0.15	87.8	90	6,000	0.12	1.61	0.16	85.2	87.7	7,000	0.14	1.84	0.94	81.1	84	200	0.09
2039	1.61	0.12	83.5	86.9	3,000	0.2	1.85	0.61	78	81.5	-1,000	0.38	1.39	0.11	86.5	89.1	19,000	0.15	1.9	0.65	80.1	83.6	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	84.3	87.5	2,000	0.07	1.2	0.15	87.8	90	6,000	0.11	1.6	0.16	85.3	87.7	7,000	0.14	1.84	0.93	81.3	84.1	200	0.09
2040	1.6	0.12	83.6	87	3,000	0.2	1.85	0.6	78.2	81.6	-1,000	0.38	1.39	0.11	86.5	89.1	19,000	0.15	1.9	0.64	80.3	83.8	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	84.4	87.5	2,000	0.07	1.2	0.15	87.9	90.1	6,000	0.11	1.6	0.16	85.3	87.8	7,000	0.14	1.84	0.93	81.5	84.3	200	0.09
2041	1.6	0.12	83.7	87.2	3,000	0.2	1.85	0.6	78.4	81.8	-1,000	0.38	1.39	0.11	86.6	89.2	19,000	0.15	1.9	0.64	80.5	83.9	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	84.5	87.6	2,000	0.07	1.2	0.15	87.9	90.1	6,000	0.11	1.6	0.16	85.3	87.8	7,000	0.14	1.84	0.93	81.7	84.5	200	0.09
2042	1.6	0.12	83.9	87.3	3,000	0.2	1.85	0.6	78.6	82	-1,000	0.38	1.39	0.11	86.7	89.2	19,000	0.15	1.9	0.64	80.8	84.2	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	84.6	87.7	2,000	0.07	1.2	0.15	87.9	90.1	6,000	0.12	1.6	0.16	85.4	87.9	7,000	0.14	1.83	0.93	82	84.7	200	0.09
2043	1.6	0.12	84	87.4	3,000	0.2	1.85	0.6	78.8	82.3	-1,000	0.38	1.39	0.11	86.7	89.2	19,000	0.15	1.9	0.64	81	84.4	500	0.07	1.59	0.5	84.7	87.7	2,000	0.07	1.2	0.15	88	90.1	6,000	0.12	1.6	0.16	85.4	88	7,000	0.14	1.83	0.93	82.2	84.9	200	0.09

Data extracted on 08 Sep 2024 05:26 UTC (GMT) from NZ.Stat

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National ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2018(base)-2043 update

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