Urban area population projections, assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update

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Urban area population projections, assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update


Projection		Medium
Measure		Period total fertility rate	Period life expectancy at birth - male	Period life expectancy at birth - female	Net migration
Measure
Area	5 years ended 30 June
Main urban area	2018	1.83	80.4	83.8	211,400
	2023	1.82	81.5	84.9	102,300
	2028	1.8	82.6	85.8	55,600
	2033	1.78	83.7	86.8	55,100
	2038	1.78	84.6	87.6	54,600
	2043	1.78	85.5	88.3	54,600
Whangarei	2018	2.4	79.1	82.5	2,300
	2023	2.37	80.2	83.6	920
	2028	2.34	81.3	84.6	320
	2033	2.31	82.4	85.5	320
	2038	2.29	83.4	86.4	320
	2043	2.29	84.2	87.1	320
Auckland	2018	1.79	81.2	84.6	124,300
	2023	1.78	82.3	85.6	64,800
	2028	1.76	83.3	86.5	35,100
	2033	1.74	84.4	87.5	34,700
	2038	1.74	85.4	88.3	34,200
	2043	1.74	86.2	89	34,200
Hamilton	2018	1.94	80.5	83.8	16,900
	2023	1.93	81.6	84.9	8,000
	2028	1.91	82.6	85.8	5,400
	2033	1.89	83.7	86.8	5,400
	2038	1.88	84.6	87.6	5,400
	2043	1.88	85.5	88.3	5,400
Tauranga	2018	2.1	81.8	85.1	12,700
	2023	2.08	82.9	86.1	8,500
	2028	2.06	83.9	87.1	6,500
	2033	2.03	85	88	6,500
	2038	2.02	85.9	88.9	6,500
	2043	2.02	86.7	89.6	6,500
Rotorua	2018	2.26	77.2	80.7	1,100
	2023	2.23	78.3	81.7	-590
	2028	2.2	79.4	82.7	-1,200
	2033	2.17	80.5	83.7	-1,200
	2038	2.16	81.5	84.6	-1,200
	2043	2.16	82.3	85.3	-1,200
Gisborne	2018	2.45	78.5	81.9	160
	2023	2.42	79.6	83	-400
	2028	2.38	80.7	84	-400
	2033	2.35	81.8	84.9	-400
	2038	2.34	82.7	85.8	-400
	2043	2.34	83.6	86.5	-400
Napier-Hastings	2018	2.42	79.5	82.9	2,200
	2023	2.39	80.6	83.9	280
	2028	2.35	81.7	84.9	280
	2033	2.32	82.7	85.9	280
	2038	2.31	83.7	86.7	280
	2043	2.31	84.5	87.4	280
New Plymouth	2018	2.14	79.7	83.1	2,600
	2023	2.12	80.8	84.1	1,300
	2028	2.1	81.9	85.1	1,300
	2033	2.07	82.9	86.1	1,300
	2038	2.06	83.9	86.9	1,300
	2043	2.06	84.7	87.6	1,300
Wanganui	2018	2.31	78.6	82.1	370
	2023	2.29	79.7	83.1	-230
	2028	2.25	80.8	84.1	-230
	2033	2.22	81.9	85.1	-230
	2038	2.21	82.9	85.9	-230
	2043	2.21	83.7	86.6	-230
Palmerston North	2018	1.75	80	83.4	1,800
	2023	1.74	81.1	84.4	200
	2028	1.72	82.1	85.4	-200
	2033	1.71	83.2	86.3	-200
	2038	1.7	84.2	87.2	-200
	2043	1.7	85	87.9	-200
Kapiti	2018	2.02	81.3	84.6	2,500
	2023	2.01	82.4	85.6	1,600
	2028	1.98	83.4	86.6	1,600
	2033	1.96	84.5	87.6	1,600
	2038	1.95	85.4	88.4	1,600
	2043	1.95	86.2	89.1	1,600
Wellington	2018	1.67	80.7	84.1	8,800
	2023	1.66	81.8	85.1	-860
	2028	1.65	82.9	86.1	-3,400
	2033	1.64	83.9	87	-3,400
	2038	1.63	84.9	87.9	-3,400
	2043	1.63	85.7	88.6	-3,400
Nelson	2018	1.93	80.9	84.3	3,300
	2023	1.92	82	85.3	2,200
	2028	1.9	83.1	86.3	2,200
	2033	1.88	84.1	87.2	2,200
	2038	1.87	85.1	88.1	2,200
	2043	1.87	85.9	88.7	2,200
Blenheim	2018	2.07	80.2	83.6	720
	2023	2.05	81.3	84.6	460
	2028	2.03	82.3	85.6	460
	2033	2	83.4	86.5	460
	2038	1.99	84.4	87.4	460
	2043	1.99	85.2	88.1	460
Christchurch	2018	1.75	80.1	83.5	26,000
	2023	1.74	81.2	84.5	14,200
	2028	1.73	82.2	85.5	6,800
	2033	1.71	83.3	86.4	6,800
	2038	1.7	84.3	87.3	6,800
	2043	1.7	85.1	88	6,800
Dunedin	2018	1.36	79.2	82.7	4,300
	2023	1.36	80.4	83.7	1,900
	2028	1.35	81.4	84.7	930
	2033	1.35	82.5	85.7	930
	2038	1.35	83.5	86.5	930
	2043	1.35	84.3	87.2	930
Invercargill	2018	1.83	77.7	81.2	1,400
	2023	1.82	78.9	82.3	-20
	2028	1.8	79.9	83.3	-20
	2033	1.78	81	84.2	-20
	2038	1.78	82	85.1	-20
	2043	1.78	82.9	85.8	-20
Secondary urban area	2018	2.15	79.3	82.7	13,700
	2023	2.13	80.4	83.7	5,200
	2028	2.1	81.5	84.7	4,500
	2033	2.07	82.5	85.7	5,200
	2038	2.06	83.5	86.5	5,200
	2043	2.06	84.3	87.2	5,200
Pukekohe	2018	2.37	81.2	84.5	3,000
	2023	2.34	82.3	85.6	2,000
	2028	2.31	83.3	86.5	1,800
	2033	2.28	84.4	87.5	2,500
	2038	2.27	85.3	88.3	2,500
	2043	2.27	86.1	89	2,500
Tokoroa	2018	2.71	76.4	79.9	-150
	2023	2.68	77.5	80.9	-580
	2028	2.63	78.6	82	-580
	2033	2.59	79.7	82.9	-580
	2038	2.58	80.7	83.8	-580
	2043	2.58	81.6	84.6	-580
Taupo	2018	2.14	79.4	82.8	1,100
	2023	2.12	80.5	83.9	140
	2028	2.09	81.6	84.8	140
	2033	2.06	82.7	85.8	140
	2038	2.06	83.6	86.7	140
	2043	2.06	84.4	87.4	140
Whakatane	2018	2.52	79.2	82.6	670
	2023	2.49	80.3	83.7	-110
	2028	2.45	81.4	84.7	-110
	2033	2.42	82.5	85.6	-110
	2038	2.4	83.5	86.5	-110
	2043	2.4	84.3	87.2	-110
Hawera	2018	2.47	77.9	81.4	90
	2023	2.44	79	82.4	-100
	2028	2.4	80.1	83.4	-100
	2033	2.37	81.2	84.4	-100
	2038	2.35	82.2	85.3	-100
	2043	2.35	83	86	-100
Feilding	2018	2.2	78.6	82	1,200
	2023	2.18	79.7	83.1	370
	2028	2.15	80.8	84	370
	2033	2.12	81.9	85	370
	2038	2.11	82.8	85.9	370
	2043	2.11	83.7	86.6	370
Levin	2018	2.25	78.7	82.2	900
	2023	2.23	79.9	83.2	350
	2028	2.2	80.9	84.2	350
	2033	2.17	82	85.2	350
	2038	2.16	83	86	350
	2043	2.16	83.8	86.8	350
Masterton	2018	2.18	78.5	81.9	750
	2023	2.16	79.6	83	300
	2028	2.13	80.7	84	300
	2033	2.1	81.8	84.9	300
	2038	2.09	82.7	85.8	300
	2043	2.09	83.6	86.5	300
Greymouth	2018	1.93	77.9	81.4	-180
	2023	1.92	79.1	82.5	-30
	2028	1.9	80.2	83.5	-30
	2033	1.88	81.3	84.4	-30
	2038	1.87	82.2	85.3	-30
	2043	1.87	83.1	86	-30
Rangiora	2018	2.11	81.5	84.9	2,300
	2023	2.09	82.6	85.9	1,300
	2028	2.06	83.7	86.8	1,000
	2033	2.04	84.7	87.8	1,000
	2038	2.03	85.7	88.6	1,000
	2043	2.03	86.5	89.3	1,000
Ashburton	2018	2.27	79.9	83.3	900
	2023	2.24	81	84.3	400
	2028	2.21	82.1	85.3	400
	2033	2.18	83.2	86.3	400
	2038	2.17	84.1	87.1	400
	2043	2.17	84.9	87.8	400
Timaru	2018	1.97	79.3	82.7	1,100
	2023	1.96	80.4	83.7	560
	2028	1.94	81.5	84.7	560
	2033	1.91	82.5	85.7	560
	2038	1.91	83.5	86.5	560
	2043	1.91	84.3	87.2	560
Oamaru	2018	2.33	78.3	81.8	680
	2023	2.31	79.5	82.8	330
	2028	2.27	80.5	83.8	330
	2033	2.24	81.6	84.8	330
	2038	2.23	82.6	85.7	330
	2043	2.23	83.4	86.4	330
Queenstown	2018	1.13	84.9	88.1	1,400
	2023	1.13	85.9	89.1	230
	2028	1.13	86.9	90	30
	2033	1.13	88	90.9	30
	2038	1.13	88.9	91.7	30
	2043	1.13	89.7	92.4	30
Minor urban area	2018	2.27	79.7	83.1	24,400
	2023	2.25	80.8	84.1	7,400
	2028	2.22	81.9	85.1	4,900
	2033	2.19	82.9	86.1	5,200
	2038	2.18	83.9	86.9	5,200
	2043	2.18	84.7	87.6	5,200
Rural Centre	2018	2.27	79.7	83.1	2,400
	2023	2.24	80.8	84.1	150
	2028	2.21	81.9	85.1	-160
	2033	2.18	83	86.1	-460
	2038	2.17	83.9	86.9	-460
	2043	2.17	84.7	87.6	-460
Other	2018	2.29	82.3	85.6	24,800
	2023	2.27	83.4	86.6	13,900
	2028	2.24	84.4	87.6	10,200
	2033	2.21	85.5	88.5	10,000
	2038	2.2	86.4	89.3	10,500
	2043	2.2	87.2	90	10,500

Data extracted on 21 Jan 2019 09:41 UTC (GMT) from NZ.Stat

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Urban area population projections, assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update

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