- Population projections
- Population projections tables
- Area unit population projections, by age and sex, 2013(base)-2043 update
- Area unit population projections, characteristics, 2013(base)-2043 update
- Area unit population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update
- National ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2013(base)-2038 update
- National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2013(base)-2038 update
- National ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)-2038 update
- National family and household projections, population by living arrangement type, age, and sex, 2013(base)-2038 update
- National family projections, by family type, 2013(base)-2038 update
- National household projections, by household type, 2013(base)-2038 update
- National labour force projections, by age and sex, 2017(base)-2068
- National labour force projections, characteristics, 2017(base)-2068
- National population projections, by age and sex, 2020(base)-2073
- National population projections, characteristics, 2020(base)-2073
- National population projections, projection assumptions, 2020(base)-2073
- Subnational ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2013(base)-2038 update
- Subnational ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2013(base)-2038 update
- Subnational ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)-2038 update
- Subnational family and household projections, population by living arrangement type, and age, 2013(base)-2038 update
- Subnational family projections, by family type, 2013(base)-2038 update
- Subnational household projections, by household type, 2013(base)-2038 update
- Subnational population projections, by age and sex, 2013(base)-2043 update
- Subnational population projections, characteristics, 2013(base)-2043 update
- Subnational population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update
- Urban area population projections, assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update
- Urban area population projections, by age and sex, 2013(base)-2043 update
- Urban area population projections, characteristics, 2013(base)-2043 update

Urban area population projections, assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update
|
---|
Projection | Medium |
---|
Measure | Period total fertility rate | Period life expectancy at birth - male | Period life expectancy at birth - female | Net migration |
---|
  |   |   |   |
---|
Area | 5 years ended 30 June | | | | | |
---|
Main urban area | 2018 | | 1.83 | 80.4 | 83.8 | 211,400 |
2023 | | 1.82 | 81.5 | 84.9 | 102,300 |
2028 | | 1.8 | 82.6 | 85.8 | 55,600 |
2033 | | 1.78 | 83.7 | 86.8 | 55,100 |
2038 | | 1.78 | 84.6 | 87.6 | 54,600 |
2043 | | 1.78 | 85.5 | 88.3 | 54,600 |
Whangarei | 2018 | | 2.4 | 79.1 | 82.5 | 2,300 |
2023 | | 2.37 | 80.2 | 83.6 | 920 |
2028 | | 2.34 | 81.3 | 84.6 | 320 |
2033 | | 2.31 | 82.4 | 85.5 | 320 |
2038 | | 2.29 | 83.4 | 86.4 | 320 |
2043 | | 2.29 | 84.2 | 87.1 | 320 |
Auckland | 2018 | | 1.79 | 81.2 | 84.6 | 124,300 |
2023 | | 1.78 | 82.3 | 85.6 | 64,800 |
2028 | | 1.76 | 83.3 | 86.5 | 35,100 |
2033 | | 1.74 | 84.4 | 87.5 | 34,700 |
2038 | | 1.74 | 85.4 | 88.3 | 34,200 |
2043 | | 1.74 | 86.2 | 89 | 34,200 |
Hamilton | 2018 | | 1.94 | 80.5 | 83.8 | 16,900 |
2023 | | 1.93 | 81.6 | 84.9 | 8,000 |
2028 | | 1.91 | 82.6 | 85.8 | 5,400 |
2033 | | 1.89 | 83.7 | 86.8 | 5,400 |
2038 | | 1.88 | 84.6 | 87.6 | 5,400 |
2043 | | 1.88 | 85.5 | 88.3 | 5,400 |
Tauranga | 2018 | | 2.1 | 81.8 | 85.1 | 12,700 |
2023 | | 2.08 | 82.9 | 86.1 | 8,500 |
2028 | | 2.06 | 83.9 | 87.1 | 6,500 |
2033 | | 2.03 | 85 | 88 | 6,500 |
2038 | | 2.02 | 85.9 | 88.9 | 6,500 |
2043 | | 2.02 | 86.7 | 89.6 | 6,500 |
Rotorua | 2018 | | 2.26 | 77.2 | 80.7 | 1,100 |
2023 | | 2.23 | 78.3 | 81.7 | -590 |
2028 | | 2.2 | 79.4 | 82.7 | -1,200 |
2033 | | 2.17 | 80.5 | 83.7 | -1,200 |
2038 | | 2.16 | 81.5 | 84.6 | -1,200 |
2043 | | 2.16 | 82.3 | 85.3 | -1,200 |
Gisborne | 2018 | | 2.45 | 78.5 | 81.9 | 160 |
2023 | | 2.42 | 79.6 | 83 | -400 |
2028 | | 2.38 | 80.7 | 84 | -400 |
2033 | | 2.35 | 81.8 | 84.9 | -400 |
2038 | | 2.34 | 82.7 | 85.8 | -400 |
2043 | | 2.34 | 83.6 | 86.5 | -400 |
Napier-Hastings | 2018 | | 2.42 | 79.5 | 82.9 | 2,200 |
2023 | | 2.39 | 80.6 | 83.9 | 280 |
2028 | | 2.35 | 81.7 | 84.9 | 280 |
2033 | | 2.32 | 82.7 | 85.9 | 280 |
2038 | | 2.31 | 83.7 | 86.7 | 280 |
2043 | | 2.31 | 84.5 | 87.4 | 280 |
New Plymouth | 2018 | | 2.14 | 79.7 | 83.1 | 2,600 |
2023 | | 2.12 | 80.8 | 84.1 | 1,300 |
2028 | | 2.1 | 81.9 | 85.1 | 1,300 |
2033 | | 2.07 | 82.9 | 86.1 | 1,300 |
2038 | | 2.06 | 83.9 | 86.9 | 1,300 |
2043 | | 2.06 | 84.7 | 87.6 | 1,300 |
Wanganui | 2018 | | 2.31 | 78.6 | 82.1 | 370 |
2023 | | 2.29 | 79.7 | 83.1 | -230 |
2028 | | 2.25 | 80.8 | 84.1 | -230 |
2033 | | 2.22 | 81.9 | 85.1 | -230 |
2038 | | 2.21 | 82.9 | 85.9 | -230 |
2043 | | 2.21 | 83.7 | 86.6 | -230 |
Palmerston North | 2018 | | 1.75 | 80 | 83.4 | 1,800 |
2023 | | 1.74 | 81.1 | 84.4 | 200 |
2028 | | 1.72 | 82.1 | 85.4 | -200 |
2033 | | 1.71 | 83.2 | 86.3 | -200 |
2038 | | 1.7 | 84.2 | 87.2 | -200 |
2043 | | 1.7 | 85 | 87.9 | -200 |
Kapiti | 2018 | | 2.02 | 81.3 | 84.6 | 2,500 |
2023 | | 2.01 | 82.4 | 85.6 | 1,600 |
2028 | | 1.98 | 83.4 | 86.6 | 1,600 |
2033 | | 1.96 | 84.5 | 87.6 | 1,600 |
2038 | | 1.95 | 85.4 | 88.4 | 1,600 |
2043 | | 1.95 | 86.2 | 89.1 | 1,600 |
Wellington | 2018 | | 1.67 | 80.7 | 84.1 | 8,800 |
2023 | | 1.66 | 81.8 | 85.1 | -860 |
2028 | | 1.65 | 82.9 | 86.1 | -3,400 |
2033 | | 1.64 | 83.9 | 87 | -3,400 |
2038 | | 1.63 | 84.9 | 87.9 | -3,400 |
2043 | | 1.63 | 85.7 | 88.6 | -3,400 |
Nelson | 2018 | | 1.93 | 80.9 | 84.3 | 3,300 |
2023 | | 1.92 | 82 | 85.3 | 2,200 |
2028 | | 1.9 | 83.1 | 86.3 | 2,200 |
2033 | | 1.88 | 84.1 | 87.2 | 2,200 |
2038 | | 1.87 | 85.1 | 88.1 | 2,200 |
2043 | | 1.87 | 85.9 | 88.7 | 2,200 |
Blenheim | 2018 | | 2.07 | 80.2 | 83.6 | 720 |
2023 | | 2.05 | 81.3 | 84.6 | 460 |
2028 | | 2.03 | 82.3 | 85.6 | 460 |
2033 | | 2 | 83.4 | 86.5 | 460 |
2038 | | 1.99 | 84.4 | 87.4 | 460 |
2043 | | 1.99 | 85.2 | 88.1 | 460 |
Christchurch | 2018 | | 1.75 | 80.1 | 83.5 | 26,000 |
2023 | | 1.74 | 81.2 | 84.5 | 14,200 |
2028 | | 1.73 | 82.2 | 85.5 | 6,800 |
2033 | | 1.71 | 83.3 | 86.4 | 6,800 |
2038 | | 1.7 | 84.3 | 87.3 | 6,800 |
2043 | | 1.7 | 85.1 | 88 | 6,800 |
Dunedin | 2018 | | 1.36 | 79.2 | 82.7 | 4,300 |
2023 | | 1.36 | 80.4 | 83.7 | 1,900 |
2028 | | 1.35 | 81.4 | 84.7 | 930 |
2033 | | 1.35 | 82.5 | 85.7 | 930 |
2038 | | 1.35 | 83.5 | 86.5 | 930 |
2043 | | 1.35 | 84.3 | 87.2 | 930 |
Invercargill | 2018 | | 1.83 | 77.7 | 81.2 | 1,400 |
2023 | | 1.82 | 78.9 | 82.3 | -20 |
2028 | | 1.8 | 79.9 | 83.3 | -20 |
2033 | | 1.78 | 81 | 84.2 | -20 |
2038 | | 1.78 | 82 | 85.1 | -20 |
2043 | | 1.78 | 82.9 | 85.8 | -20 |
Secondary urban area | 2018 | | 2.15 | 79.3 | 82.7 | 13,700 |
2023 | | 2.13 | 80.4 | 83.7 | 5,200 |
2028 | | 2.1 | 81.5 | 84.7 | 4,500 |
2033 | | 2.07 | 82.5 | 85.7 | 5,200 |
2038 | | 2.06 | 83.5 | 86.5 | 5,200 |
2043 | | 2.06 | 84.3 | 87.2 | 5,200 |
Pukekohe | 2018 | | 2.37 | 81.2 | 84.5 | 3,000 |
2023 | | 2.34 | 82.3 | 85.6 | 2,000 |
2028 | | 2.31 | 83.3 | 86.5 | 1,800 |
2033 | | 2.28 | 84.4 | 87.5 | 2,500 |
2038 | | 2.27 | 85.3 | 88.3 | 2,500 |
2043 | | 2.27 | 86.1 | 89 | 2,500 |
Tokoroa | 2018 | | 2.71 | 76.4 | 79.9 | -150 |
2023 | | 2.68 | 77.5 | 80.9 | -580 |
2028 | | 2.63 | 78.6 | 82 | -580 |
2033 | | 2.59 | 79.7 | 82.9 | -580 |
2038 | | 2.58 | 80.7 | 83.8 | -580 |
2043 | | 2.58 | 81.6 | 84.6 | -580 |
Taupo | 2018 | | 2.14 | 79.4 | 82.8 | 1,100 |
2023 | | 2.12 | 80.5 | 83.9 | 140 |
2028 | | 2.09 | 81.6 | 84.8 | 140 |
2033 | | 2.06 | 82.7 | 85.8 | 140 |
2038 | | 2.06 | 83.6 | 86.7 | 140 |
2043 | | 2.06 | 84.4 | 87.4 | 140 |
Whakatane | 2018 | | 2.52 | 79.2 | 82.6 | 670 |
2023 | | 2.49 | 80.3 | 83.7 | -110 |
2028 | | 2.45 | 81.4 | 84.7 | -110 |
2033 | | 2.42 | 82.5 | 85.6 | -110 |
2038 | | 2.4 | 83.5 | 86.5 | -110 |
2043 | | 2.4 | 84.3 | 87.2 | -110 |
Hawera | 2018 | | 2.47 | 77.9 | 81.4 | 90 |
2023 | | 2.44 | 79 | 82.4 | -100 |
2028 | | 2.4 | 80.1 | 83.4 | -100 |
2033 | | 2.37 | 81.2 | 84.4 | -100 |
2038 | | 2.35 | 82.2 | 85.3 | -100 |
2043 | | 2.35 | 83 | 86 | -100 |
Feilding | 2018 | | 2.2 | 78.6 | 82 | 1,200 |
2023 | | 2.18 | 79.7 | 83.1 | 370 |
2028 | | 2.15 | 80.8 | 84 | 370 |
2033 | | 2.12 | 81.9 | 85 | 370 |
2038 | | 2.11 | 82.8 | 85.9 | 370 |
2043 | | 2.11 | 83.7 | 86.6 | 370 |
Levin | 2018 | | 2.25 | 78.7 | 82.2 | 900 |
2023 | | 2.23 | 79.9 | 83.2 | 350 |
2028 | | 2.2 | 80.9 | 84.2 | 350 |
2033 | | 2.17 | 82 | 85.2 | 350 |
2038 | | 2.16 | 83 | 86 | 350 |
2043 | | 2.16 | 83.8 | 86.8 | 350 |
Masterton | 2018 | | 2.18 | 78.5 | 81.9 | 750 |
2023 | | 2.16 | 79.6 | 83 | 300 |
2028 | | 2.13 | 80.7 | 84 | 300 |
2033 | | 2.1 | 81.8 | 84.9 | 300 |
2038 | | 2.09 | 82.7 | 85.8 | 300 |
2043 | | 2.09 | 83.6 | 86.5 | 300 |
Greymouth | 2018 | | 1.93 | 77.9 | 81.4 | -180 |
2023 | | 1.92 | 79.1 | 82.5 | -30 |
2028 | | 1.9 | 80.2 | 83.5 | -30 |
2033 | | 1.88 | 81.3 | 84.4 | -30 |
2038 | | 1.87 | 82.2 | 85.3 | -30 |
2043 | | 1.87 | 83.1 | 86 | -30 |
Rangiora | 2018 | | 2.11 | 81.5 | 84.9 | 2,300 |
2023 | | 2.09 | 82.6 | 85.9 | 1,300 |
2028 | | 2.06 | 83.7 | 86.8 | 1,000 |
2033 | | 2.04 | 84.7 | 87.8 | 1,000 |
2038 | | 2.03 | 85.7 | 88.6 | 1,000 |
2043 | | 2.03 | 86.5 | 89.3 | 1,000 |
Ashburton | 2018 | | 2.27 | 79.9 | 83.3 | 900 |
2023 | | 2.24 | 81 | 84.3 | 400 |
2028 | | 2.21 | 82.1 | 85.3 | 400 |
2033 | | 2.18 | 83.2 | 86.3 | 400 |
2038 | | 2.17 | 84.1 | 87.1 | 400 |
2043 | | 2.17 | 84.9 | 87.8 | 400 |
Timaru | 2018 | | 1.97 | 79.3 | 82.7 | 1,100 |
2023 | | 1.96 | 80.4 | 83.7 | 560 |
2028 | | 1.94 | 81.5 | 84.7 | 560 |
2033 | | 1.91 | 82.5 | 85.7 | 560 |
2038 | | 1.91 | 83.5 | 86.5 | 560 |
2043 | | 1.91 | 84.3 | 87.2 | 560 |
Oamaru | 2018 | | 2.33 | 78.3 | 81.8 | 680 |
2023 | | 2.31 | 79.5 | 82.8 | 330 |
2028 | | 2.27 | 80.5 | 83.8 | 330 |
2033 | | 2.24 | 81.6 | 84.8 | 330 |
2038 | | 2.23 | 82.6 | 85.7 | 330 |
2043 | | 2.23 | 83.4 | 86.4 | 330 |
Queenstown | 2018 | | 1.13 | 84.9 | 88.1 | 1,400 |
2023 | | 1.13 | 85.9 | 89.1 | 230 |
2028 | | 1.13 | 86.9 | 90 | 30 |
2033 | | 1.13 | 88 | 90.9 | 30 |
2038 | | 1.13 | 88.9 | 91.7 | 30 |
2043 | | 1.13 | 89.7 | 92.4 | 30 |
Minor urban area | 2018 | | 2.27 | 79.7 | 83.1 | 24,400 |
2023 | | 2.25 | 80.8 | 84.1 | 7,400 |
2028 | | 2.22 | 81.9 | 85.1 | 4,900 |
2033 | | 2.19 | 82.9 | 86.1 | 5,200 |
2038 | | 2.18 | 83.9 | 86.9 | 5,200 |
2043 | | 2.18 | 84.7 | 87.6 | 5,200 |
Rural Centre | 2018 | | 2.27 | 79.7 | 83.1 | 2,400 |
2023 | | 2.24 | 80.8 | 84.1 | 150 |
2028 | | 2.21 | 81.9 | 85.1 | -160 |
2033 | | 2.18 | 83 | 86.1 | -460 |
2038 | | 2.17 | 83.9 | 86.9 | -460 |
2043 | | 2.17 | 84.7 | 87.6 | -460 |
Other | 2018 | | 2.29 | 82.3 | 85.6 | 24,800 |
2023 | | 2.27 | 83.4 | 86.6 | 13,900 |
2028 | | 2.24 | 84.4 | 87.6 | 10,200 |
2033 | | 2.21 | 85.5 | 88.5 | 10,000 |
2038 | | 2.2 | 86.4 | 89.3 | 10,500 |
2043 | | 2.2 | 87.2 | 90 | 10,500 |
