Area unit population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update

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Area unit population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update


Projection		Medium
Measure		Period total fertility rate	Period life expectancy at birth - male	Period life expectancy at birth - female	Net migration
Measure
Area	5 years ended 30 June
Far North district	2018	2.65	78.4	81.9	1,000
	2023	2.61	79.5	82.9	0
	2028	2.57	80.6	83.9	0
	2033	2.53	81.7	84.9	0
	2038	2.52	82.7	85.7	0
	2043	2.52	83.5	86.4	0
Whangarei district	2018	2.35	80.1	83.5	5,000
	2023	2.32	81.2	84.5	3,000
	2028	2.29	82.2	85.5	2,000
	2033	2.26	83.3	86.4	2,000
	2038	2.25	84.3	87.3	2,000
	2043	2.25	85.1	88	2,000
Kaipara district	2018	2.35	80.3	83.7	1,800
	2023	2.32	81.4	84.7	600
	2028	2.29	82.5	85.7	600
	2033	2.26	83.6	86.7	600
	2038	2.25	84.5	87.5	600
	2043	2.25	85.3	88.2	600
Auckland	2018	1.8	81.3	84.7	135,000
	2023	1.79	82.4	85.7	72,500
	2028	1.77	83.5	86.6	42,500
	2033	1.76	84.5	87.6	42,500
	2038	1.75	85.5	88.4	42,500
	2043	1.75	86.3	89.1	42,500
Thames-Coromandel district	2018	2.1	81	84.4	2,000
	2023	2.08	82.1	85.4	800
	2028	2.06	83.2	86.4	800
	2033	2.03	84.2	87.3	800
	2038	2.02	85.2	88.2	800
	2043	2.02	86	88.9	800
Hauraki district	2018	2.3	80.4	83.8	1,400
	2023	2.27	81.5	84.8	200
	2028	2.24	82.5	85.7	200
	2033	2.21	83.6	86.7	200
	2038	2.2	84.6	87.6	200
	2043	2.2	85.4	88.2	200
Waikato district	2018	2.3	80.3	83.7	6,000
	2023	2.27	81.4	84.7	3,500
	2028	2.24	82.5	85.7	2,500
	2033	2.21	83.5	86.7	2,500
	2038	2.2	84.5	87.5	2,500
	2043	2.2	85.3	88.2	2,500
Matamata-Piako district	2018	2.35	81	84.4	1,200
	2023	2.32	82.1	85.4	0
	2028	2.29	83.2	86.4	0
	2033	2.26	84.3	87.3	0
	2038	2.25	85.2	88.2	0
	2043	2.25	86	88.9	0
Hamilton city	2018	1.9	80.4	83.8	11,000
	2023	1.89	81.5	84.8	5,000
	2028	1.87	82.5	85.7	3,000
	2033	1.85	83.6	86.7	3,000
	2038	1.84	84.6	87.5	3,000
	2043	1.84	85.4	88.2	3,000
Waipa district	2018	2.1	81	84.4	4,000
	2023	2.08	82.1	85.4	2,000
	2028	2.06	83.2	86.4	1,500
	2033	2.03	84.2	87.3	1,500
	2038	2.02	85.2	88.2	1,500
	2043	2.02	86	88.8	1,500
Otorohanga district	2018	2.75	81.3	84.6	200
	2023	2.71	82.4	85.7	0
	2028	2.66	83.4	86.6	-400
	2033	2.62	84.5	87.6	-400
	2038	2.61	85.4	88.4	-400
	2043	2.61	86.2	89.1	-400
South Waikato district	2018	2.65	78.1	81.6	0
	2023	2.61	79.2	82.6	-800
	2028	2.57	80.3	83.6	-800
	2033	2.53	81.4	84.6	-800
	2038	2.52	82.4	85.4	-800
	2043	2.52	83.2	86.2	-800
Waitomo district	2018	2.4	76.5	80	200
	2023	2.37	77.6	81	-400
	2028	2.34	78.7	82.1	-400
	2033	2.3	79.8	83.1	-400
	2038	2.29	80.8	83.9	-400
	2043	2.29	81.7	84.7	-400
Taupo district	2018	2.2	79.1	82.5	1,600
	2023	2.18	80.2	83.5	0
	2028	2.15	81.3	84.5	0
	2033	2.12	82.3	85.5	0
	2038	2.11	83.3	86.3	0
	2043	2.11	84.1	87	0
Western Bay of Plenty district	2018	2.3	81	84.4	3,200
	2023	2.27	82.1	85.4	1,500
	2028	2.24	83.1	86.3	1,500
	2033	2.21	84.2	87.3	1,500
	2038	2.2	85.2	88.1	1,500
	2043	2.2	86	88.8	1,500
Tauranga city	2018	2.1	81.7	85.1	12,000
	2023	2.08	82.8	86.1	8,000
	2028	2.06	83.8	87	6,000
	2033	2.03	84.9	88	6,000
	2038	2.02	85.9	88.8	6,000
	2043	2.02	86.6	89.5	6,000
Rotorua district	2018	2.25	77.8	81.2	1,200
	2023	2.23	78.9	82.3	-800
	2028	2.2	80	83.3	-1,500
	2033	2.17	81.1	84.3	-1,500
	2038	2.16	82.1	85.1	-1,500
	2043	2.16	82.9	85.9	-1,500
Whakatane district	2018	2.5	78.4	81.9	600
	2023	2.47	79.5	82.9	-600
	2028	2.43	80.6	83.9	-600
	2033	2.4	81.7	84.9	-600
	2038	2.38	82.7	85.7	-600
	2043	2.38	83.5	86.4	-600
Kawerau district	2018	2.5	76.8	80.3	0
	2023	2.47	77.9	81.4	-400
	2028	2.43	79.1	82.4	-400
	2033	2.4	80.2	83.4	-400
	2038	2.38	81.1	84.3	-400
	2043	2.38	82	85	-400
Opotiki district	2018	3	76.2	79.7	-200
	2023	2.95	77.3	80.7	-500
	2028	2.9	78.4	81.8	-500
	2033	2.85	79.5	82.8	-500
	2038	2.84	80.5	83.6	-500
	2043	2.84	81.4	84.4	-500
Gisborne district	2018	2.5	78.1	81.6	-200
	2023	2.47	79.2	82.6	-800
	2028	2.43	80.3	83.6	-800
	2033	2.4	81.4	84.6	-800
	2038	2.38	82.4	85.4	-800
	2043	2.38	83.2	86.2	-800
Wairoa district	2018	2.8	76.2	79.7	-400
	2023	2.76	77.3	80.7	-500
	2028	2.71	78.4	81.8	-500
	2033	2.67	79.5	82.8	-500
	2038	2.66	80.5	83.6	-500
	2043	2.66	81.4	84.4	-500
Hastings district	2018	2.55	79.4	82.8	1,000
	2023	2.52	80.5	83.9	0
	2028	2.48	81.6	84.8	0
	2033	2.44	82.7	85.8	0
	2038	2.43	83.6	86.7	0
	2043	2.43	84.4	87.4	0
Napier city	2018	2.25	79.7	83.2	1,500
	2023	2.23	80.8	84.2	500
	2028	2.2	81.9	85.2	500
	2033	2.17	83	86.1	500
	2038	2.16	84	87	500
	2043	2.16	84.8	87.7	500
Central Hawke's Bay district	2018	2.6	79.7	83.1	250
	2023	2.57	80.8	84.1	-250
	2028	2.52	81.9	85.1	-250
	2033	2.49	82.9	86.1	-250
	2038	2.47	83.9	86.9	-250
	2043	2.47	84.7	87.6	-250
New Plymouth district	2018	2.25	80.1	83.5	3,000
	2023	2.23	81.2	84.5	1,500
	2028	2.2	82.2	85.5	1,500
	2033	2.17	83.3	86.4	1,500
	2038	2.16	84.3	87.3	1,500
	2043	2.16	85.1	88	1,500
Stratford district	2018	2.3	79.7	83.2	-100
	2023	2.27	80.8	84.2	-200
	2028	2.24	81.9	85.2	-200
	2033	2.21	83	86.1	-200
	2038	2.2	84	87	-200
	2043	2.2	84.8	87.7	-200
South Taranaki district	2018	2.5	78.4	81.9	-500
	2023	2.47	79.5	82.9	-800
	2028	2.43	80.6	83.9	-800
	2033	2.4	81.7	84.9	-800
	2038	2.38	82.7	85.7	-800
	2043	2.38	83.5	86.5	-800
Ruapehu district	2018	2.6	77.4	80.9	-350
	2023	2.57	78.5	82	-1,000
	2028	2.52	79.6	83	-1,000
	2033	2.49	80.7	83.9	-1,000
	2038	2.47	81.7	84.8	-1,000
	2043	2.47	82.6	85.5	-1,000
Whanganui district	2018	2.3	78.8	82.2	400
	2023	2.27	79.9	83.3	-200
	2028	2.24	81	84.2	-200
	2033	2.21	82.1	85.2	-200
	2038	2.2	83	86.1	-200
	2043	2.2	83.9	86.8	-200
Rangitikei district	2018	2.75	79.4	82.8	-100
	2023	2.71	80.5	83.8	-500
	2028	2.66	81.6	84.8	-500
	2033	2.62	82.6	85.8	-500
	2038	2.61	83.6	86.6	-500
	2043	2.61	84.4	87.3	-500
Manawatu district	2018	2.2	80	83.4	1,500
	2023	2.18	81.1	84.5	500
	2028	2.15	82.2	85.4	500
	2033	2.12	83.3	86.4	500
	2038	2.11	84.2	87.2	500
	2043	2.11	85	87.9	500
Palmerston North city	2018	1.75	80	83.5	2,000
	2023	1.74	81.2	84.5	400
	2028	1.73	82.2	85.5	0
	2033	1.71	83.3	86.4	0
	2038	1.7	84.3	87.3	0
	2043	1.7	85.1	88	0
Tararua district	2018	2.5	79.4	82.8	-300
	2023	2.47	80.5	83.9	-500
	2028	2.43	81.6	84.8	-500
	2033	2.4	82.7	85.8	-500
	2038	2.38	83.6	86.7	-500
	2043	2.38	84.5	87.4	-500
Horowhenua district	2018	2.25	79.1	82.5	1,200
	2023	2.23	80.2	83.6	300
	2028	2.2	81.3	84.5	300
	2033	2.17	82.4	85.5	300
	2038	2.16	83.3	86.4	300
	2043	2.16	84.2	87.1	300
Kapiti Coast district	2018	2	81.4	84.8	3,000
	2023	1.98	82.5	85.8	2,000
	2028	1.96	83.5	86.7	2,000
	2033	1.94	84.6	87.7	2,000
	2038	1.93	85.6	88.5	2,000
	2043	1.93	86.4	89.2	2,000
Porirua city	2018	2.45	79	82.5	0
	2023	2.42	80.1	83.5	-1,000
	2028	2.38	81.2	84.5	-1,000
	2033	2.35	82.3	85.4	-1,000
	2038	2.34	83.3	86.3	-1,000
	2043	2.34	84.1	87	-1,000
Upper Hutt city	2018	2.1	79.7	83.1	1,000
	2023	2.08	80.8	84.2	500
	2028	2.06	81.9	85.2	500
	2033	2.03	83	86.1	500
	2038	2.02	84	87	500
	2043	2.02	84.8	87.7	500
Lower Hutt city	2018	2.05	79.7	83.1	0
	2023	2.03	80.8	84.1	-2,000
	2028	2.01	81.9	85.1	-2,500
	2033	1.98	83	86.1	-2,500
	2038	1.98	83.9	86.9	-2,500
	2043	1.98	84.7	87.6	-2,500
Wellington city	2018	1.3	82.3	85.6	8,000
	2023	1.3	83.3	86.6	2,000
	2028	1.3	84.4	87.5	0
	2033	1.3	85.4	88.5	0
	2038	1.3	86.4	89.3	0
	2043	1.3	87.2	90	0
Masterton district	2018	2.2	78.8	82.2	800
	2023	2.18	79.9	83.3	300
	2028	2.15	81	84.2	300
	2033	2.12	82.1	85.2	300
	2038	2.11	83	86.1	300
	2043	2.11	83.9	86.8	300
Carterton district	2018	2.2	79.7	83.1	500
	2023	2.18	80.8	84.1	200
	2028	2.15	81.9	85.1	200
	2033	2.12	83	86.1	200
	2038	2.11	83.9	86.9	200
	2043	2.11	84.7	87.6	200
South Wairarapa district	2018	2.4	80.3	83.7	300
	2023	2.37	81.4	84.8	100
	2028	2.34	82.5	85.7	100
	2033	2.3	83.6	86.7	100
	2038	2.29	84.5	87.5	100
	2043	2.29	85.3	88.2	100
Tasman district	2018	2	81.6	85	2,000
	2023	1.98	82.7	86	1,500
	2028	1.96	83.8	87	1,500
	2033	1.94	84.8	87.9	1,500
	2038	1.93	85.8	88.7	1,500
	2043	1.93	86.6	89.4	1,500
Nelson city	2018	1.95	80.7	84.1	2,500
	2023	1.94	81.8	85.1	1,500
	2028	1.91	82.9	86.1	1,500
	2033	1.89	83.9	87	1,500
	2038	1.89	84.9	87.9	1,500
	2043	1.89	85.7	88.6	1,500
Marlborough district	2018	2.15	81.3	84.7	800
	2023	2.13	82.4	85.7	500
	2028	2.1	83.5	86.7	500
	2033	2.08	84.6	87.6	500
	2038	2.07	85.5	88.5	500
	2043	2.07	86.3	89.2	500
Kaikoura district	2018	2.4	81.9	85.3	-50
	2023	2.37	83	86.3	-50
	2028	2.34	84.1	87.3	-50
	2033	2.3	85.1	88.2	-50
	2038	2.29	86.1	89	-50
	2043	2.29	86.9	89.7	-50
Buller district	2018	2.15	77.8	81.2	-600
	2023	2.13	78.9	82.3	-100
	2028	2.1	80	83.3	-100
	2033	2.08	81.1	84.3	-100
	2038	2.07	82.1	85.1	-100
	2043	2.07	82.9	85.9	-100
Grey district	2018	2.3	78.7	82.2	-400
	2023	2.27	79.9	83.2	-200
	2028	2.24	80.9	84.2	-200
	2033	2.21	82	85.2	-200
	2038	2.2	83	86.1	-200
	2043	2.2	83.8	86.8	-200
Westland district	2018	1.95	79.3	82.8	100
	2023	1.94	80.4	83.8	-100
	2028	1.91	81.5	84.8	-100
	2033	1.89	82.6	85.7	-100
	2038	1.89	83.6	86.6	-100
	2043	1.89	84.4	87.3	-100
Hurunui district	2018	2.1	81.6	85	700
	2023	2.08	82.7	86	200
	2028	2.06	83.7	86.9	200
	2033	2.03	84.8	87.9	200
	2038	2.02	85.8	88.7	200
	2043	2.02	86.6	89.4	200
Waimakariri district	2018	2.1	82	85.3	7,500
	2023	2.08	83	86.3	4,500
	2028	2.06	84.1	87.3	3,500
	2033	2.03	85.1	88.2	3,500
	2038	2.02	86.1	89	3,500
	2043	2.02	86.9	89.7	3,500
Christchurch city	2018	1.75	80.1	83.5	22,500
	2023	1.74	81.2	84.5	12,500
	2028	1.73	82.2	85.5	6,000
	2033	1.71	83.3	86.4	6,000
	2038	1.7	84.3	87.3	6,000
	2043	1.7	85.1	88	6,000
Selwyn district	2018	1.9	84.4	87.7	13,000
	2023	1.89	85.5	88.7	7,000
	2028	1.87	86.5	89.6	4,000
	2033	1.85	87.5	90.5	4,000
	2038	1.84	88.4	91.3	4,000
	2043	1.84	89.2	92	4,000
Ashburton district	2018	2.3	80.7	84.1	1,400
	2023	2.27	81.8	85.1	600
	2028	2.24	82.9	86.1	600
	2033	2.21	83.9	87	600
	2038	2.2	84.9	87.9	600
	2043	2.2	85.7	88.6	600
Timaru district	2018	2.1	80.1	83.5	1,800
	2023	2.08	81.2	84.5	1,000
	2028	2.06	82.2	85.5	1,000
	2033	2.03	83.3	86.4	1,000
	2038	2.02	84.3	87.3	1,000
	2043	2.02	85.1	88	1,000
Mackenzie district	2018	2.15	81	84.4	250
	2023	2.13	82.1	85.4	0
	2028	2.1	83.1	86.3	0
	2033	2.08	84.2	87.3	0
	2038	2.07	85.1	88.1	0
	2043	2.07	86	88.8	0
Waimate district	2018	2.35	80.7	84.1	200
	2023	2.32	81.8	85.1	100
	2028	2.29	82.9	86.1	100
	2033	2.26	83.9	87	100
	2038	2.25	84.9	87.9	100
	2043	2.25	85.7	88.6	100
Chatham Islands territory	2018	2.3	76.4	80	0
	2023	2.27	77.6	81	0
	2028	2.24	78.7	82	0
	2033	2.21	79.8	83	0
	2038	2.2	80.8	83.9	0
	2043	2.2	81.6	84.6	0
Waitaki district	2018	2.4	79.1	82.5	800
	2023	2.37	80.2	83.6	400
	2028	2.34	81.3	84.5	400
	2033	2.3	82.4	85.5	400
	2038	2.29	83.3	86.4	400
	2043	2.29	84.2	87.1	400
Central Otago district	2018	2.15	82.9	86.2	1,700
	2023	2.13	84	87.2	800
	2028	2.1	85.1	88.2	800
	2033	2.08	86.1	89.1	800
	2038	2.07	87	90	800
	2043	2.07	87.8	90.6	800
Queenstown-Lakes district	2018	1.45	84.8	88.1	7,000
	2023	1.45	85.9	89	4,000
	2028	1.44	86.9	90	2,000
	2033	1.43	87.9	90.9	2,000
	2038	1.43	88.8	91.7	2,000
	2043	1.43	89.6	92.3	2,000
Dunedin city	2018	1.4	79.4	82.8	4,500
	2023	1.4	80.5	83.8	2,000
	2028	1.39	81.6	84.8	1,000
	2033	1.39	82.7	85.8	1,000
	2038	1.39	83.6	86.7	1,000
	2043	1.39	84.4	87.4	1,000
Clutha district	2018	2.25	80.3	83.7	0
	2023	2.23	81.4	84.8	-400
	2028	2.2	82.5	85.7	-400
	2033	2.17	83.6	86.7	-400
	2038	2.16	84.5	87.5	-400
	2043	2.16	85.3	88.2	-400
Southland district	2018	2.3	81.9	85.3	-200
	2023	2.27	83	86.3	-800
	2028	2.24	84.1	87.2	-800
	2033	2.21	85.1	88.2	-800
	2038	2.2	86.1	89	-800
	2043	2.2	86.9	89.7	-800
Gore district	2018	2.35	78.8	82.2	0
	2023	2.32	79.9	83.3	-100
	2028	2.29	81	84.2	-100
	2033	2.26	82.1	85.2	-100
	2038	2.25	83	86.1	-100
	2043	2.25	83.9	86.8	-100
Invercargill city	2018	1.85	77.8	81.3	1,500
	2023	1.84	78.9	82.3	0
	2028	1.82	80	83.3	0
	2033	1.8	81.1	84.3	0
	2038	1.79	82.1	85.2	0
	2043	1.79	82.9	85.9	0

Data extracted on 23 Nov 2020 16:33 UTC (GMT) from NZ.Stat

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Area unit population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)-2043 update

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